Monday, December 29, 2008

An Exponential Moving Average Is Another Way Of "Weighting" The More Recent Data

An exponential moving average multiplies a percentage of the most recent price by the previous period's average price.
Defining the optimum moving average for a particular currency pair involves "curve fitting". Curve fitting is the process of selecting the right number of periods with the correct type of moving average to produce the results the user is trying to achieve. By trial and error, technicians work with the time periods to fit the price data.
Because the moving average is constantly changing based on the latest market data, many traders will use different "specified" time frames before they come up with a series of moving averages that are optimal for a particular currency.

For example, a trader might create a 5-day, a 15-day and a 30-day moving average for a currency and then plot them on his or her price chart. He might start out using simple moving averages and end up using weighted moving averages. In creating these moving averages, traders need to decide on the exact price data that will be used in this study; meaning closing prices vs. opening prices vs. high/low/close etc. After doing so, a series of lines are created that reflect the 5-day, 15-day and 30-day moving average of a currency.
Once the data is layered over a price chart, traders can determine how well these chosen periods keep track of the trend being followed. If, for example, a market is trending higher, you'd expect the 30-day moving average to be a very accurate trend line, providing a line of support for prices on their way higher. If prices seem too close under this 30-day moving average on several occasions without resulting in a halt in the up trend, a trader will simply adjust the time period to say a 45-day or 60-day moving average in order to optimize the average. In this way, the moving average will act as a trend line.

After determining the optimum moving average for a currency, this average price line can be used as a line of support in maintaining a long position or resistance in maintaining a short position. Breaches of this line can also be used as a signal that a currency is in the process of reversing course, in which case a trader will want to pare back an existing position or come up with entry levels for a new position. For example, if you determine that a 30-day moving average has shown itself to be a good support line for USDJPY in an upward trending market, then market closes under this 30-day moving average line could be a signal that this trend could be running out of steam. However, it is important to wait for confirmation of these signals. One way to do this is to wait for another close below the level. On the second close under the average, you should begin to pare down your position. Another confirmation involves using other, shorter term moving averages.

While a longer term moving average can help to define and support a particular trend, shorter term moving averages can provide lead signals that a trend is ending before prices dip below your longer term moving average line. For this reason, most traders will plot several moving averages on the same chart. In a market that is trending higher, a shorter term moving average might signal a market reversal by turning down and crossing over the longer term moving average. For example, if you are using a 15-day and a 45-day moving average in a market that is in an up trend, and the 15-day moving average turns down and crosses over the 45-day moving average, this could be an early signal that the up trend is ending and it is probably time to begin to pare down your position.


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